Ár Ré leadership election, 4256
Jennifer Bowens faced a challenge to her leadership of Ár Ré in January of 4256, after the results of that year's general election were announced. Three backbench candidates stood against Bowens. Opinion polls showed that the race was unpredictable and Bowens faced even odds on being replaced as Leader. However, she narrowly made it past the first and second rounds of voting, even though she placed second in the latter, and eventually won in the run-off against her main opponent, Eric Styles. A total of 104,995 votes were cast. Background Ár Ré fell into a deep decline as the party ceded a huge portion of its seats in the 4252 elections, dropping below the 100-seat mark for the first time since 4175. Angus Pollux, the then-leader of the party, resigned and triggered a leadership election which saw Jennifer Bowens comfortably win against her three opponents. However, Bowens' style of leadership and campaigning strategies failed to meet expectations. She presented herself as a "catch-all" leader, and was on the fence over many issues. Even as public opinion and, more importantly, party membership opinion favoured a certain position much more over the other, Bowens sided with neither the majority nor the minority, and instead chose a "neutral" position. This led to a hemorrhaging of party support to fringe parties, who were more vocal on said issues. In the 4256 elections, Ár Ré's electoral troubles worsened. The party saw its worst ever electoral result, and had less than 50 seats in the General Assembly for the first time since its formation. Jennifer Bowens placed a measly sixth in the presidential election. Many backbenchers and core party supporters were infuriated at the results and saw Bowens as a weak leader. However, in spite of her poor performance at the polls, Bowens did not resign from her position either as the Leader of the party or as the party's presidential candidate. This led to speculation that some Assembly Members were seeking to front a challenge against her leadership. Bowens' candidacy for the presidency, however, would remain unaffected, as it could only be rescinded at her discretion and not by the will of the party. Seven days after the general election, Martha Wellington, a newly-elected AM from Dirguzia, invoked the clause in the Constitution which triggered a leadership challenge against Bowens. She required at least 20% of the sitting AMs to vote in favour of her motion, or 9 AMs. In the end, 37 members voted in favour of her motion, compared to 7 against and 2 abstentions. Procedure The last constitutional review was held in 4250 and came into effect in time for the 4252 leadership election. Up to only six candidates can participate in the leadership election. Candidates need not be holding public office, but have to be a member of Ár Ré for at least three years, and must receive at least one "endorsement". This endorsement could come from either a sitting Ár Ré member of the General Assembly, from the Regional Assemblies, by the incumbent Leader of Ár Ré (if he/she is not a sitting member), or from a former President of Kirlawa who represented Ár Ré. If more than six candidates apply, the six candidates with the highest number of endorsements will be selected to participate in the election. The election uses the Alternative Vote method, in which voters rank candidates by preference. In each round of balloting, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated until two candidates remain. In the final round, the candidate receiving the higher number of votes wins the election. Timeline Candidates Notable endorsements Michael Arthur-Doyle, then Deputy Leader of the party, endorsed Eric Styles. Only three Cabinet members endorsed Bowens: Eileen Thompson, the Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs; Margaret Mitchell, the Spokesperson for National Development; and Neil Eisenhower, the Spokesperson for Science and Technology. Spokesperson for Defense Shannon O'Brian and Spokesperson for Justice Ruth Williams both declined to endorse any of the four candidates. Spokesperson for Health and Social Services Gordon McGuinness and Spokesperson for Education and Culture Sheryl Kennedy both endorsed Martha Wellington. Spokesperson for Food and Agriculture Liam Reese endorsed Jonathan Maratoza. All the other Cabinet members did not endorse any particular candidate. Results Analysis The results of the three rounds, though read on the same day, were announced at different times: the first round results were announced at 9AM, the second round results were announced at 1PM, and the final round results were announced at 5PM. The announcement of the results for the first ballot were met with shock. Although Jennifer Bowens won in the first round of voting (albeit by a small margin), many did not expect Jonathan Maratoza, who had the least number of votes and the lowest popular support registered in the opinion polls, to poll so competitively with the other three candidates. However, he still had the least number of votes and was eliminated. Bowens, won with only a margin of 1376 votes over her closest competitor, Martha Wellington. The second ballot yielded two surprises. Styles catapulted from third place to first, receiving only 570 votes more than Bowen, who was pushed back into second place. Wellington, who was widely believed to make it into the run-off with Bowens, placed third with 32.4% of the vote, only 1.7 percentage points behind Styles. This was attributed to many of the Maratoza preferences going to Styles instead of Bowens or Wellington. Wellington was subsequently eliminated from the run-off. The final results were watched very closely. Results were read out by "local party center", i.e. the headquarters of the party in a specific region. Bowens placed well in her home province of Uwakah, Dirguzia and in the urban centers of Nuchtmark and Dirlana. Styles placed well in his home province of Nuchtmark, Merkan and in the rural areas of Dirlana. Eventually, Bowens won Styles by a margin of only 543 votes. It was one of the tightest leadership contests in Ár Ré to date. Aftermath Although her Cabinet colleagues in large numbers either rebelled or refused to support her, Bowens made no changes in an attempt to please the various power factions within the party, especially since her competitors polled very close numbers to her's. All her Cabinet colleagues agreed to continue serving in the Cabinet until at least the next general election. Bowens' three competitors did not change their posts following their respective electoral performances, except for Martha Wellington who took on the junior spokesperson role of Deputy Spokesperson for Regional Relations. Bowens would later go on to achieve a stunning electoral success in the 4259 elections, winning over 130 seats. She herself was close to entering the presidential run-off, but failed to make it by two percentage points.